Yes, that predictive inflation calculation often works for a Washington Consensus economy. It does not work for a Shimomuran-Wernerian economy -in Japan for example where Professor Richard Werner has used Granger Predictive Causation Correlation (invented by Clive Granger and his colleague Robert Engel) in its most modern Henry II formulation to show that Japanese economic growth can be predicted (with a high degree of significance for all the right-hand elements in the equation)as equal to a constant + c1 times BoJ credit creation one year ago+ c2 times BoJ credit creation two years ago. Werner has also demonstrated the validity of a similar equation (using the same highly advanced econometric technology) relating asset price growth in Japan to speculative credit creation at the BoJ. Ganger and Engel in 2003 received the Nobel prize for economics (or more accurately econometrics) for that great advance in econometric statistics. Of course most Western Washington Consensus (WCM) economists do not use or test their postulates against this theory for if they did, and Werner has, and when they do, their entire useless castle-in-the-air of WCM collapses as having no relevance to the real world. Meanwhile a very few knowledgeable market players in Asia are using Granger PCC to make small fortunes becuse it’s now possible to predict major market shifts from leading indicators. Granger PCC identifies the predictive leaders and the followers if you are bright enough to use it. How amazingly backward US economics is, and surpringly how retarded are the major market players. But maybe in a decade or two they will catch on.